Long-lead ENSO predictability from CMIP5 decadal hindcasts
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Long‐lead ENSO predictability from CMIP5 decadal hindcasts
The limits for the predictability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been long discussed. Even when ENSO prediction skill is expected to be limited, questions remain as to which are the controlling factors. The role of atmospheric noise for ENSO initiation, the growth of initial errors and inadequate models have been identified as key elements (e.g., Chen et al. 2004; Chen and Cane...
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A simple coupled model is used to examine decadal variations in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction skill and predictability. Without any external forcing, the coupled model produces regular ENSO-like variability with a 5-yr period. Superimposed on the 5-yr oscillation is a relatively weak decadal amplitude modulation with a 20-yr period. External uncoupled atmospheric ‘‘weather nois...
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[1] This study assesses the CMIP5 decadal hindcast/ forecast simulations of seven state-of-the-art oceanatmosphere coupled models. Each decadal prediction consists of simulations over a 10 year period each of which are initialized every five years from climate states of 1960/1961 to 2005/2006. Most of the models overestimate trends, whereby the models predict less warming or even cooling in the...
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The El Ni~ no–La Ni~ na asymmetry is evaluated in 14 coupled models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The results show that an underestimate of ENSO asymmetry, a common problem noted in CMIP3 models, remains a common problem in CMIP5 coupled models. The weaker ENSO asymmetry in the models primarily results from a weaker SST warm anomaly over the eastern Pacific ...
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The evaluation of dynamical ensemble forecast systems requires a solid validation of basic processes such as the global atmospheric water and energy cycle. The value of any validation approach strongly depends on the quality of the observational data records used. Current approaches utilize in situ measurements, remote sensing data and reanalyses. Related data records are subject to a number of...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Climate Dynamics
سال: 2015
ISSN: 0930-7575,1432-0894
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2757-0